FOREIGN NEWS
July-August. 2025 | @ AGROBiz
FOREIGN NEWS
07
Russia’ s grain crisis
RUSSIA is facing a steep decline in its grain exports, marking the lowest levels seen in 17 years, driven by drought-stricken fields, weak market prices, and currency strength that is squeezing farmer profits.
According to projections by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies( IKAR), wheat exports in July are expected to hit just two million tonnes, a stark contrast to 3.6 million tonnes recorded during the same month last year.
Other market observers, including SovEcon and Rusagrotrans, have echoed similar estimations, placing July exports between 2 and 2.6 million tonnes.
Field activity is also lagging significantly. The Russian Agriculture Ministry reported that as of July 2, only 3.8 million tonnes of grain had been harvested nationwide, well below the 16.5 million tonnes gathered by the same time in 2023.
The Rostov region, responsible for around 10 per cent of the nation’ s grain output, has been among the hardest hit. Facing one of its most severe droughts in recent years, the area has declared a state of emergency across 19 districts, with officials forecasting the smallest harvest in a decade, a 20 per cent
decrease from last year’ s volume. The impact has spilt into parts of Krasnodar, another key agricultural zone.
With grain prices sliding and the ruble strengthening, farmers are holding back supplies.
Bottlenecks are also emerging at export terminals.
“ Grain is arriving at the port two
to three weeks later than exporters expected, due to delays in harvesting, lengthy procedures for obtaining declarations and low prices. The goods have been sold, but there’ s nothing to load onto the ships,” said a trader.
The Agriculture Ministry, however, remains optimistic, forecasting a total grain harvest of 135 million
DROUGHT IMPACT: Delayed harvests and dry conditions have left fields under stress, impacting export flows.
tonnes this year, five million tonnes more than last year. Export availability is projected at 53 to 55 million tonnes.
Still, analysts warn that recent signals are troubling. Igor Pavensky of Rusagrotrans estimated that Russian wheat exports fell 25.2 per cent for the 2024-25 season, citing a sharp decline from January onwards.
Soy oil shift
DEMAND SURGE: Farmers may benefit as soybean oil becomes a hot commodity for fuel.
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U. S. SOYBEAN oil consumption is expected to surge in the coming year as biofuel producers absorb a record share of the domestic supply, driven by a wave of new federal policies favouring renewable energy.
According to the U. S. Department of Agriculture( USDA), biofuel makers are projected to consume 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil in the 2025 / 26 marketing year, which starts Oct 1.
This marks an 11.5 per cent increase from the previous month’ s estimate and a significant 26.5 per cent jump compared to the current
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marketing year.
The increase means that more than half of the country’ s soybean oil will be allocated toward biofuel production, resulting in exports of just 700 million pounds, a sharp decline from 2.6 billion pounds this season.
The surge follows the Environmental Protection Agency’ s( EPA) recent proposal to raise blending mandates through 2027. The changes include reduced credits, known as Renewable Identification Numbers( RINs), for imported biofuels and those made from foreign
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feedstocks, making domestically sourced oils, such as soy, more attractive.
“ EPA not only significantly raised the mandates but also proposed to reduce the number of Renewable Identification Numbers( RINs) generated for imported renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced from foreign feedstocks starting in 2026,” the USDA said.
Additional support has come from state-level biofuel mandates and the introduction of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit,
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part of President Donald Trump’ s recently enacted budget law.
The developments have offered a boost to the U. S. biofuels sector after months of uncertainty, particularly among producers relying on soybean oil, canola oil, and used cooking oil.
With policies now tilted in favour of local feedstock producers, U. S. soybean oil is poised to become a central pillar in the country’ s renewable fuel supply chain. Soybean growers and oil producers are likely to benefit from the renewed momentum.- @ AGROBiz
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