JANUARY-FEBRUARY , 2023 | @ green
COVER STORY
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Life expectancy , 2021
Figure 2 :
Natural gas produced before 2000
No data 54 years 58 years 62 years 66 years 70 years 74 years 78 years 82 years 86 years 90 years
Source : UN WPP ( 2022 ); Zijdeman et al . ( 2015 ); Riley ( 2005 )
OurWorldInData . org / life-expectancy • CC BY
Note : Shown is the ‘ period life expectancy ’. This is the average number of years a newborn would live if age-specific mortality rates in the current year were to stay the same throughout its life .
Estimated gas demand between 2000 - 2025
Estimated requirement of natural gas between 2050 - 2075
distribution of wealth globally . If not careful , South countries , being almost perennial followers , will have inefficient clean energy infrastructure delivered to them through international aid packages . Once such infrastructure is laid , the emerging nations ’ total life cycle costs will ensure that the “ Energy Supply Colonisation ” of the South steps into a forward motion phase .
The Battle for Sustainability will only be won when demand drops voluntarily and not when supply is curtailed forcibly . Curtailing supply forcibly , particularly curtailing gas exploration and production , will likely drive inflation higher and create economic chaos . Electricity blackouts , the bane of emerging economies , will not be exclusive to the South .
At the onset of this article , an accepted definition of “ Energy Transition ” was provided . The scope of the Energy Transition has to be widened to include a transformation of our mindsets . Increased awareness of the issues is apparent , but the messaging needs to be balanced . These messages are simple :
• The planet is in peril if growth is not managed .
• We need affordable energy . It will not all be clean and green .
• For everyone , the transition must gradually ease us towards minimalism , functionality and moderation against a balanced desire for growth . These must be the messages of politicians and not the setting of unrealistic , populist expectations that the industry is not ready to deliver on a wide scale . Furthermore , oil and gas companies must be recognised as fulfilling demand , not causing it . Human ambition fuels demand , and fulfilment of that demand has delivered a great deal of good over many decades and geographies . Importantly , if oil and gas companies are
Estimated requirement of natural gas between 2025 - 2050
Approximately this volume of natural gas must be discovered and produced to fulfil estimated global demand for the period between 2075 and 2100 if rate of growth of natural gas demand is 2.8 % p . a .
Figure 3 : More Investment required for a future natural gas safety net . disenfranchised from investing in providing energy , the resulting negative social impact will be severe .
For the South countries , this period of the Energy Transition must be used to find our bespoke solutions . Energy security and independence will be critical in a world on a collision course with nature . – @ Green
Dr Kenneth Pereira is managing director of Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Greening gas
FOR countries like Malaysia and others in tropical regions , photovoltaic-based solutions are often proposed as a largescale energy source . This is unrealistic .
Cloud cover allows an average of six hours of electricity generation , and inefficient irradiance levels are another negative factor to consider . Even if solar-based solutions were deployed , the use of land to provide enough electricity and the requirement for energy storage on an enormous scale renders such a plan , at this time , unfeasible .
The reality is that photovoltaic solutions are best suited for rooftop deployment , with a conventionally generated electricity supply also available in parallel , on standby .
So , what will be the constituents of a future Malaysian renewable or clean energy mix ? Currently , the picture is unclear if large-scale nuclear energy deployment is excluded ( nuclear being part of the latest European Union clean energy taxonomy ). It
Natural gas is our best bet as a transition fuel and even more importantly , as a longterm energy supply safety net , but insufficient attention is being given towards replenishing this resource .”
is not a situation peculiar to Malaysia and is , in fact , a reality for many emerging economies .
Realising this reality must drive paradigm shifts toward selecting what is appropriate from the West and coupling it with what is widely available and affordable to emerging economies . This transition to a clean energy environment cannot be an experiment for emerging economies .
It is too expensive to get this wrong . Thus , the necessary mindset change would be to view gas utilisation as a destination rather than a transition journey . For the moment , and particularly for emerging economies , gas fits all elements of the energy trilemma , i . e ., energy security , energy equity ( accessibility and affordability ) and environmental sustainability .
Thus gas , as the destination fuel of choice for emerging economies , should be the priority . Indeed , we should “ green gas ” rather than “ greenwash ” for emerging economies .