July-August . 2024 | @ green

Reflection of climate change and Malaysia ’ s ageing demographics

Dali lost both engine power and its generator at the same time , leaving it adrift and unable to correct its course . The bridge was fully up to code when constructed in 1972 , but the size of cargo ships has increased more than tenfold since then .

Dali had an experienced pilot who recognised the impending disaster . With just three minutes to act , he alerted authorities to close the bridge and took emergency measures to slow the ship , saving many lives .

However , he was unable to prevent six deaths , the collapse of the bridge and the resulting closure of the nearby Baltimore port . Insurers now face claims of up to US $ 3 billion ( RM14.13 billion ).

The crash shines a spotlight on inherited physical and institutional infrastructure designed for different times and circumstances that leave us vulnerable as the world changes .

Today , experts and leaders are sounding warnings and attempting emergency action on climate change , global conflicts , emerging diseases and more .

Yet governments , societies and economies are weighed down by inertia and seemingly ageing systems that are unable to avert disaster and limited in their ability to mitigate consequences in a poly-crisis world where failures in seemingly disparate systems — such as climate resilience and retirement savings — can coincide to create catastrophes faster than we can act .

Those disparate systems — climate and an ageing demographic — are in play now in Malaysia .

700 HEATWAVE ALERTS

Between February and March , the Malaysian Meteorological Department issued about 700 heatwave alerts , with the Malaysian Agriculture Research and Development Institute estimating that the rising heat will reduce this year ’ s rice yield to 62 per

cent .

The composition of Malaysia ’ s population aged 65 + years will nearly double from 7.4 per cent in 2023 to 14.5 per cent by 2040 .

Meanwhile , economic turmoil and the lack of jobs indicate that less than

BY NILOY BANERJEE

Resident representative of UNDP Malaysia , Singapore and Brunei Darussalam .

and

DAVID TAN

Head of experimentation of the UNDP Malaysia Accelerator Lab .

The Dali collision .

40 % of formal workers between the ages of 51 and 55 in Malaysia are on track to achieve basic savings of RM240,000 ( about US $ 50,000 ) via the Employees Provident Fund ( EPF ).

That booming ageing demographic will collide with rising global warming .

These two trends will have many areas of confluence . Climate change will demand major government investments in climate adaptation and economic restructuring even as an ageing society results in a declining tax base and a corresponding increase in demand for government services and social protection .

As these trends intersect , it raises the question of how this will all impact Malaysia ’ s development .

The systems that contributed to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge represent a sobering snapshot of the colliding web of global development challenges we face .

TRENDS REPORT

This year , the UN Development Programme ( UNDP ) launched its Trends Report , examining how 32 global trends intersect across 13 themes , including declining trust in public institutions , green transition , health in a changing climate and increasing migration due to environmental and economic shocks induced by climate effects .

The analysis in the Trends Report goes beyond extrapolating from past data to thinking critically about future implications . Because the world is fluid and dynamic , merely projecting the past and present into the future is misleading .

But by identifying uncertainties and signals to watch for , we can better understand the underlying drivers and systems that generate these trends and better anticipate and prepare for a range of potential futures .

Extreme weather events will raise the cost of food and other amenities , placing financial pressure on retirees with limited savings and few options for work . The transition towards a green and climate-resilient economy will both create and displace jobs , which will disproportionately impact older workers who lack new skill sets .

These and other confluences of climate and demographic transition mean that failures in both systems could have multiplier effects that spiral out of control , leaving people and governments rudderless and at the mercy of climate and economic currents .

As the government begins to prepare its Thirteenth Malaysia Plan ( 13MP ), paying attention to trends , understanding their drivers and anticipating the range of implications can help build more agile institutions and policies that can blunt the socioeconomic risks from climate change .

The 13MP will take Malaysia from 2026 through 2030 , which is also the deadline for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals ( SDGs ).

It is time to accelerate towards meeting those goals and look even further : to set Malaysia on a course of peace , prosperity and sustainability for all its people in a changing climate future . – @ green