@ green | March-April , 2021

Projected timeline for that to occur may not please the ardent opponents of this particular fossil fuel

By G . LALCHAND

Coal-fired power plants , running mainly as baseload plants , can generate electricity at over 70 per cent capacity factor , or around 6,000 kWh per kW capacity installed , which is also the typical consumer demand ( or load factor ).”

It is the worst emitter of carbon dioxide emissions per unit ( GWh ) of electricity generated , besides emitting unburnt particulate matter despite the best emission prevention technologies such ESP ( electrostatic precipitation of the particles produced during combustion ) employed .

It is no wonder it is the favourite “ whipping boy ” of environmental preservation NGOs ( non-government organisations ) around the globe who clamour for the end of the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation .

Nevertheless , it is still one of the most primary energy sources for electricity generation and other industrial use , especially for developing economies .

Most of these countries are fast developing and need the most significant amount of the cheapest form of electricity that they can use to power their rapid economic development .

The virtually exponential growth of clean , renewable energy ( RE ) development , due partly to its rapidly declining unit cost of electricity production ( LCOE or levelised cost of energy ) over the last couple of decades , has gone some way to displace fossil fuel , especially coal , for electricity generation and use .

Globally , the use of coal has grown for decades ( even centuries from the First Industrial Revolution ), as shown in the chart below , which was extracted from “ IDEAS Policy Ideas No 55 , Nov 2018 : Powering the future : Malaysia ’ s energy policy challenges ( Renato Lima de Oliveira )”

However , its utilisation growth has slowed over the recent past , and peak consumption has probably passed during the last decade .

This utilisation trend is further reinforced by that electricity generated from low carbon RE resources has now overtaken by that produced from coal .

The exponential growth of electricity generation from RE resources , coupled

with pragmatic policy decisions to phase out coal-fired electricity generation , will undoubtedly continue unabated .

This is especially with the growing commitment to minimise carbon emissions for power generation to meet global endeavours , minimises climate change by limiting the global temperature rise to , or less than , 1.5oC .

So it would appear that the objective to “ Kill King Coal ” is no longer a pipe dream but is a reality , at least on a global scale . However , the projected timeline for that to occur may not please the ardent opponents of this particular fossil fuel .

But what is the prospect for the share of coal-fired electricity generation for Malaysia ?

The Energy Commission ’ s “ Report on Peninsular Malaysia Generation Development Plan 2019 ( 2020 to 2030 )” shows in Figure 4 : “ New capacity projection ( 2020 – 2030 )” that thermal power plants ( coal and gas ) are planned to be commissioned as late as in 2029 and 2030 .

The same report also projects the transition in Malaysia ’ s primary energy mix for power generation over the report ’ s time window as per the chart below ( Figure 7 from the ST Report . It shows that coal-fired generation capacity may still constitute 29 per cent of Malaysia ’ s power generation mix in 2030 .

Obviously , this doesn ’ t give much hope that coal-fired power generation in Malaysia will disappear any time soon .

Since thermal power plants have a design life of about 25 years ( and can operate for even longer ), it appears that Malaysia can still have coal-fired power plants beyond 2050 unless they are decommissioned prematurely for any other reasons .

So , what will it take to replace coal-fired power plants with REpower plants ?

Most countries that have managed to increase their share of RE generated electricity have the benefits of some RE technologies that are not available to many developing countries .

The most significant contributors to clean RE generated electricity are :

• hydro-electric power ( HEP ),

• biomass-fired thermal power plants using wood-chips ,

• large solar PV or CSP ( Concentrated Solar Power ) plants ,

• on-shore and off-shore wind turbines systems .

Sadly , Malaysia misses these options , except for large PV in Malaysia comprising the LSS power plants and HEP in Sarawak . For the record , Sarawak is reported to have a potential of 20,000 MW capacity from its HEP resources .

Unfortunately , solar PV systems have a limited electricity generation duration while the sun shines , typically an average of about 4 hours a day . This translates to an energy generation of approximately 1,400 kWh per kWp of PV capacity installed .

Coal-fired power plants , running mainly as baseload plants , can generate electricity at over 70 per cent capacity factor , or around 6,000 kWh per kW capacity installed , which is also the typical consumer demand ( or load factor ).

Hence PV installed capacity has to be about 4.3 times the consumer demand ( and similarly coal-fired plant capacity ) to replace the coal-fired plants .

The ST ’ s projections of the power system demand and primary energy mix show that the market in 2030 will be about 23,000 MW , with coal contributing about 29 per cent of that demand . This would mean that coal-fired power plants in the 2030 world supply about 6,700 MW of the market .

This means that peninsula Malaysia would require about 28,800 MWp of PV capacity to replace the estimated 6,700 MW of coal-fired power plants . It would also need substantial energy storage capacity to store the “ excess ” PV generated electricity for use when the sun does not shine .

This “ anomaly ” is often ignored by those who clamour for the accelerated elimination of coal-fired power generation , assuming that RE power generation systems , predominantly PV in peninsula Malaysia , can eliminate any need for coalfired power plants .

The need for coal-fired power plants in Malaysia being in service even beyond 2050 offers a more realistic perspective to consider gradually increasing the REpower generation capacity over that time frame to displace all the coal-fired plants in Malaysia .

So , can we kill “ King Coal ”? Yes , but we must do it “ slooowly ”. — @ green