• Column 25 to the 2022-23 Annual Report published by the Bangladesh Power Development Board on its website .
March-April . 2024 | @ green
• Column 25 to the 2022-23 Annual Report published by the Bangladesh Power Development Board on its website .
AI is not happening in a vacuum . Technology adoption beyond AI remains on pace , and the ever-increasing use of social media has created a demand for massive storage capacity . Research published by the Frontier Group , a green energy thinktank , provides some useful reference points , as reproduced below :
• Modern computing relies on powerful data centres located around the world . Data centres house data and IT infrastructure – both software and hardware . Data centres consumed 240- 340 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2022 , or 240-340 billion kilowatt-hours – about 1.0-1.3 per cent of total global electricity use . That ’ s comparable to the electricity consumption of the entire United Kingdom .
• In 2020 , the information and communication technology sector , including data centres , networks and user devices , consumed about 915 TWh of electricity , or 4-6 per cent of all electricity used worldwide . That ’ s comparable to the energy consumption of 86 million typical American homes – about two-thirds of all US households .
• The electricity demand of the IT sector may reach 3,200 TWh by 2030 . That ’ s even more than the amount of electricity experts estimate it could take to power every electric vehicle in the world in 2050 if automakers sell only EVs by 2040 . While these startling predictions are yet to materialise , the question of where all this newly created power demand will be sourced is also a question that has yet to be answered , especially considering that the Energy Transition has not delivered its targets – at least not yet .
THE REALITY OF 2024
The world is now faced with two competing priorities . On the one hand , the need to mitigate climate change is demonstrated by the chart ( Figure 1 ).
Charts such as that shown in Figure 1 were repeatedly touted as representing the most important dataset of the twenty-first century and have been the basis of driving the Energy Transition agenda . But what does the future hold ?
Figure 2 demonstrates another factor that will impact the timing of the Energy Transition . It shows that we are likely to be short on energy in the future as those who have historically had less access to energy will try to develop their economies and demand cheap and larger quantities of fuel . How will this reconcile with a world chasing net zero and deploying advanced technologies ?
As the name suggests , energy transition involves replacing fossil fuels with energy sources with lower ( or no ) carbon emissions footprint . Necessarily , it involves investing less in fossil fuels and funding large sums in non-fossil fuel energy sources . S & P estimates that the world must spend US $ 150 trillion to contain emissions , so the global average temperature rise will be no more than 1.5C .
The breakdown of the spending is below – and just a tiny fraction involves fossil fuel investment .
Is all this realistic ? As of 2022 , fossil fuels provided about 82 per cent of the world ’ s energy consumption . This is down from 86.3 per cent in the year 2004 . That ’ s a reduction of less than five per cent over the last 20 years despite a total investment in the transition estimated by Bloomberg New Energies as being in the range of US $ 9.5 trillion . More importantly , humankind is now faced with AI ’ s irrepressible force .
Figure 2 : Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption by Source ( 2022 )
Figure 3 :
Figure 4 : Time for Technology Adoption
The chart previously touted as the most important of the 21st century is being superseded by Figure 4 below .
Global business leaders with a deep understanding of the energy industry are already sounding the alarm regarding how the world will square the circle of rising energy demand with clean energy constraints imposed by the Energy Transition agenda .
Roberto Verdecchia of the University of Florence concludes : “ In the race to produce faster and more accurate AI models , environmental sustainability is often regarded as a second-class citizen .”
Aramco CEO , Amin Nasser was particularly blunt . He spoke at CERA Week in March 2024 stating : “ The energy transition is failing , and policymakers should abandon the “ fantasy ” of phasing out oil and gas , as demand for fossil fuels is expected to continue to grow in the coming years . In the real world , the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with …. hard realities .”
FAST TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION – SLOW ENERGY TRANSITION
Developed nations will use AI and all forms of technology to pursue economic progress . That pursuit will require energy . If emerging economies concurrently push for equitable energy access , can the current approach to the Energy Transition achieve its goals ? It is unlikely .
Daniel Yergin , one of the world ’ s most influential and knowledgeable energy commentators , takes the discussion one step further .
He answered whether we were at the end of the oil age in the following manner : “ No . Predicting exactly when the oil demand will fall is like a game . Demand is growing in developing and emerging countries right now . We will probably continue to see growth until sometime into the early 2030s , and even then , demand won ’ t drop precipitously . It will be more of a slow decline .” – @ green