@ green | May-June . 2024

The Energy Transition Rainbow and the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha ’ apai volcano

WAS invited to be part of a panel at a recent regional energy conference . Present were a diverse group of prominent bankers , lawyers and senior leaders of energy companies . During my panel session , I was asked about my interpretation of the Energy Transition . I decided not to regurgitate the tried , tested and diplomatically correct responses that one typically hears in large public forums .

To describe my views , I said that I saw the Energy Transition as a rainbow . Something beautiful and almost romantic , suspended magically , high in the sky . Its real and truthful colour is a boring white , but we see a hue of glorious colours . At the end of this rainbow is the proverbial “ pot of gold ” or Net Zero target , something enormously difficult to achieve .

I continued my commentary by stating that many are chasing the Net Zero agenda and backing this pursuit with much investment . However , I have recently observed less conviction , more confusion and a general slowing of momentum in this race to manage global warming . Interestingly , many nodded in agreement .

Afterwards , many thanked me for this analogy over the remaining two days of the conference . Why do I have this image in my mind ?

ON THE BALANCE OF PROBABILITIES

In legal proceedings , the evidence presented to a jury or judge in a court of law is often not definitive . There may not be enough evidence to convict a criminal , but there might be sufficient “ smoke ” that there must have been a fire burning somewhere at some point . In such cases , judges consider evidence on the balance of probabilities . This is the case with climate change . Science , politics , industry and finance each has a viewpoint and a motivation to promote their stand . Leaders use convenient data to win political support . Industry pursues profits based on real or perceived market opportunity , while financial institutions arbitrage in-between .

On the balance of probabilities , what would be a safe pathway through the climate change debate that would result in sound national policy , sensible fiscal spending in this area and keep the world out of a chaotic future ?

Since Al Gore ’ s movie “ An Inconvenient Truth ” was first screened in the late 1990s , Climate Alarmists have predicted an impending “ climate emergency ”. Those who are less

BY DR KENNETH PEREIRA

dramatic claim we are in the throes of a climate crisis . The primary evidence :

• Global temperatures are rising at an accelerating pace because of anthropogenic CO2 emissions ;

• Polar ice caps are melting , and

• Sea levels are rising at alarming speeds . Their response is to immediately stop using fossil fuels and replace our current energy system with technologies reliant on renewable and clean energy sources at unimaginable cost . What does the empirical evidence say :

CASE OF THE HUNGA TONGA- HUNGA HA ’ APAI VOLCANO

From Figure 1 , we can conclude that temperatures are gradually increasing . It is also irrefutable that we are witnessing a spike in global temperatures . So , it may be queried if that is not compelling evidence of anthropogenic climate change .

Many climatologists disagree . They claim that when the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha ’ apai volcano erupted on Jan 15 , 2022 , not only did it send a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice , the underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapour into Earth ’ s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools . The sheer amount of water vapour was likely

Figure 1- Recent Global Temperature Measurements ( 1979 to 2024 ). sufficient to temporarily affect Earth ’ s global average temperature .

Luis Millán , an atmospheric scientist at NASA ’ s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California , led a study examining the amount of water vapour that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere - the layer of the atmosphere between about 12-53 kilometres above Earth ’ s surface . In the study , published in Geophysical Research Letters , Millán and his colleagues estimate that the eruption sent around 146 teragrams ( one teragram equals a trillion grammes ) of water vapour into Earth ’ s stratosphere – equal to 10 per cent of the water already present in that atmospheric layer . Is this significant ? Water vapour is Earth ’ s most abundant greenhouse gas . It is responsible for about half of Earth ’ s greenhouse effect . Thus , the impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha ’ apai was immense . It increased the Earth ’ s greenhouse effect by 5-7.5 per cent in a few days .

When reading the mainstream media publications about any recent climate-related event anywhere in the world , has Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha ’ apai been highlighted as a significant potential cause ?

Imagine , if the greenhouse effect currently experienced by the Earth is characterised by the numeric value of 100 and that 100 was achieved after some 170 years of humankind utilising various forms of fossil fuels as an

2024 Temperature Spike