@ green | November-December , 2022

Malaysia can still confidently look forward to attaining its RE generation capacity share targets for 2035

BY G . LALCHAND

It was agreed upon under The Paris Agreement ( PA ) in 2015 . COP27 was in Sharm el-Sheikh , Egypt , on Nov 6-18 , 2022 .

What happened in the year that has gone by so quickly ? The hopes that blossomed after COP 26 appear to have evaporated during the past year , with fossil fuel power generation ( including coal ) gaining greater traction .

This has happened in no small measure due to the resurgent global economic activity after the constraints due to the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions were gradually removed worldwide . The unfortunate war in Ukraine and its impact on gas supply disruptions , especially in Europe , have not helped either .

COP26 raised great hopes for all nations to aim for Net Zero Emissions ( NZE ) by the middle of this century to limit the global temperature rise to below 2oC , and preferably to only 1.5oC , as agreed at COP 21 in 2015 ( Paris Agreement ) to ensure a liveable planet for all forms of life .

This included the need to reduce global GHG emissions by about 50 per cent from the 2005 levels by 2030 to achieve the target . This target seems out of reach for most countries committed to it at Glasgow in 2021 .

The charts below from IEA World Energy Outlook - 2021 projections show the limits of “ emission targets ” needed to constrain the global temperature rise to 1.5oC under different emission reduction policy scenarios .

These figures present rather tough challenges for the global community to meet , mainly to satisfy the mid-term target of 50 per cent emission reduction from the 2005 levels by 2030 .

As things stand now , these ambitious targets look out of reach unless drastic policy commitments were realised at COP27 .

Where does Malaysia stand in these ' climate emergency ' conditions ?

Malaysia committed under the NDC ( Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 ) to reduce the national carbon intensity to GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 from its value in 2005 . Malaysia had indicated it had achieved about 33 per cent carbon intensity to GDP by 2015 , so any commitment to reach a 45 per cent carbon intensity by 2030 seems relatively insignificant ( not at all challenging ).

The IEA Blue Map scenario shows that EE , or efficient use of energy , provides the “ biggest bang for the buck ” for efforts to reduce carbon emissions , comprising about 38 per cent of the desired reductions . CCUS , with a 19 per cent share and renewables , with a 17 per cent share , are the next most prominent components .

CCUS is not quite mainstream yet . So , using renewable energy ( RE ) resources is the best bet for Malaysia to achieve its carbon intensity reduction aspirations .

While there are many forms of RE globally , Malaysia has a relatively limited range of viable RE resources to exploit . These include solar PV , hydroelectric power , biomass and biogas , and biofuels . Other high-capacity resources such as geothermal , wind and marine REs such as tidal , wave and OTEC ( Ocean Thermal