@Green November/December 2024 | Page 21

November-December . 2024 | @ green

• placating the desires of the climate change movement keeps certain political groups in power .

WILL THE EUROPEAN STRATEGY WORK ?

The significance of Energy Security will prevail . The EU ’ s gas demand is around 330 billion cubic metres ( bcm ) per annum ( p . a .). It is estimated that in 2021 , the EU imported 135 bcm , equivalent to 41 per cent of its demand , in the form of pipeline gas from Russia .

After the application of sanctions and the sabotage , as mentioned above , of subsea pipeline infrastructure , Russia could only deliver about 60 bcm of gas to the EU in 2022 . Interestingly , about 25 per cent of this 60 bcm supply was transiting the Ukraine via pipelines in 2023 ( flowing to Austria ( 6.0 bcm p . a .), Slovakia ( 6.5 bcm p . a .) and Hungary ( 1.0 bcm p . a .)) under an agreement that will expire at the end of 2024 . The Ukraine leadership has explicitly said that it has little interest in extending an agreement that is assisting Russia in funding the war against their nation .

Figure 2 : Sources of Gas Imported to the European Union

With Russian gas being gradually squeezed out of the energy mix of Europe ( see Figure 2 ), and the EU promoting sustainability ahead of affordability as Trilemma elements , it is likely that costs in Europe are only going to inflate further , and Europeans , in general , will effectively be poorer for longer .

CAN AZERBAIJAN PROVIDE A SOLUTION ?

From a geographic perspective , Azerbaijan has an advantage . Doubling gas exports from Azerbaijan to the European Union ( EU ) has been a primary focus of an energy alliance between the EU and the government of Azerbaijan .

The objective is to increase gas supply from Azerbaijan to Europe to approximately 20 bcm p . a . by 2027 . The Southern Gas Corridor ( SGC ), a vital route in Europe ’ s energy diversification strategy , has assumed an increasingly significant role in fulfilling this commitment .

The SGC has been operational since 2020 , serving as a key natural gas supply route from the Caspian Sea to European markets . The SGC comprises a network of interconnected pipelines , including the South Caucasus Pipeline ( SCP ), the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline ( TANAP ), and the Trans- Adriatic Pipeline ( TAP ), enabling the transportation of gas from Azerbaijan to Italy ( see Figure 3 ).

In 2023 , Azerbaijan supplied 12 bcm to eight European nations . If it succeeds in meeting its target of 20 bcm by 2027 , it may assist Europe replace some of the gas lost through the non-extension of the Russia / Ukraine piped gas transit agreement .

THE AZERBAIJAN PARADOX

It is ironic that a country , initially criticised as a location for the COP 29 event , has , in fact , a multifaceted role to play in the future Energy Trilemma deliberations and decision-making of many countries .

Asia and Europe will have to find the middle ground in their respective Energy Transition journeys . Where better a place to start those discussions than in a country that calls both continents its neighbours ?

Europe is in a tight spot and will need to resolve its Energy Security issues . Is Azerbaijan in the right spot to provide some answers ? – @ green

SOURCE : MINISTRY OF ENERGY , AZERBAIJAN Figure 3 : The Southern Gas Corridor – An Alternative Piped Gas Supply Route to Europe

IN THE mid 1980s , Kishore Mahbubani , a Singaporean , served as his nation ’ s Permanent Representative to the United Nations ( UN ). Between 2001 and 2002 , he served as President of the UN Security Council . In 2001 , he also published a book , “ Can Asians Think ? Understanding the Divide Between East and West ”.

At the time , I read his seminal work and concluded that Mahbubani observed the following :

• societies in Asia possess rich intellectual traditions , and Asians have a deep foundation from which to engage confidently in global discourse of subjects of common interest ;

• globalisation and interconnectedness ( today , we call this the internet ) have created a platform for Asian voices to be heard ;

• the emergence of Asia as an economic powerhouse recalibrates global power dynamics ; and

• overall , Mahbubani called for recognition of Asia ’ s intellectual contributions . In the two decades since the publication of this book , Asia ’ s economic growth narrative has only become even more substantive , with India and China doing much of the heavy-lifting and a lot of the innovative thinking required in this emerging region .

• Leveraging on its large coal reserves , coupled with investment in coal-fired power plants , may look counter-intuitive to an energy transition agenda but , if analysed in depth , demonstrates the following benefits :

• Electricity generated from coal is low cost , enabling cheap energy to build competitively priced EVs . EVs do not emit greenhouse gases ( GHGs ). The GHGs are produced at a central power station

( albeit using coal as fuel ), but being produced at a central location would enable appropriate carbon capture and storage ( CCS ) technologies to be implemented at the power generation site in the future . Clean , cheap EVs powered by cheap electricity from coal-fired power plants emitting GHGs to carbon capture infrastructure .

There can be no global net zero if Asia does not go net zero . However , there could be a 2060 Asia Net Zero Energy Trilemma that is feasible and actionable . China is thinking and leading . Asia should be following . And it appears that Mahbubani ’ s assertions have been vindicated . Asians can think and are acting !