08 COVER STORY
@ green | SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER . 2023
Malaysia – Roadmap to NZE 2050 ?
LAL ‘ S CHAT
BY G . LALCHAND
Efficient energy use could be a significant contributor in efforts to meet the Net Zero Emission ( NZE ) target
MALAYSIA has exploited the use of “ Policy Roadmaps ” to formulate and document its economic development directions to generate confidence in prospective local and international investors of the security of their investments in efforts to help Malaysia in its economic development journey towards becoming a high-income nation .
As usual , the Malaysian documents , whether as policy documents or roadmaps , were well-formulated and written to give sound , confidence-building written commitments that entice prospective investors to choose Malaysia over its competing economies .
In recent years , there has been a finite emphasis on addressing Malaysia ’ s endeavours for Energy Transition to achieve the holy grail of reaching a net zero emission by 2050 . Among recent such documents are the National Energy Policy 2040 ( also known as DTN 2040 - Dasar Tenaga Negara 2040 ), MYRER ( Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap ), and Low Carbon Mobility Blueprint ( LCMB ).
Recently , and profusely welcomed by the related industry players , economy development and financial services analysts , and energy utility suppliers , was the launch on Jul 27 , 2023 , of Part 1 of the NETR ( National Energy Transition Roadmap ).
This was followed by the launch of Part 2 of the NETR by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim on Aug 29 , 2023 .
• Part 1 of the NETR projected very impressive economic development outcomes , including a potential investment of RM25 billion , with the creation of 23,000 high-paying , high-technology jobs from the projected development investments , all of which are welcome strategies to accelerate national economic growth in the post-pandemic era .
• It outlined 10 flagship catalyst projects covering six energy transition levers , namely energy efficiency ( EE ), renewable energy ( RE ), hydrogen ( H2 ), bioenergy , green mobility and carbon capture , utilisation , and storage ( CCUS ).
• Part 2 has built upon the basic structure established under Part 1 to “ add meat to the structure ’ s skeleton ”. It has also
introduced specific milestones for implementing the relevant targetted development achievements . These milestones could have been on 5-year periods to follow Malaysia ’ s Development Plan periods rather than just 2040 and 2050 . Notwithstanding the effusive praise that the NETR has garnered , some issues may warrant review , as detailed below .
EFFICIENT USE OF ENERGY
Among the most critical levers is the EE element , which will see the EECA ( Energy Efficiency & Conservation Act ) finally being enacted ( over a decade after its initial drafting ). Efficient energy use has been projected to be one of the most significant contributors to emission reductions for efforts to meet the desired NZE ( Net Zero Emission ) target .
RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONE
The critical elements of the RE component are to increase the share of RE from 40 per cent in 2035 to 70 per cent by 2050 and to enable cross-border RE trade .
Establishing the cross-border RE trade mechanism is undoubtedly an attractive revenue-earning option , as the traded RE can generate substantially higher revenue from such sales than it can for supply to the local grid .
But would that count for national emission reductions in moving towards the NZE scenario when the existing and projected RE would not satisfy national needs to meet the Paris Agreement emission reduction targets by 2030 ?
Additionally , the “ share ” of RE has been declared as a portion of the total generating capacity ( in MW or GW ). It does not equate to the share of the energy generated ( in GWh or TWh ) by the RE-generating plants . RE , especially solar PV , has a relatively low capacity factor for energy generation , as documented in the National REPAP ( RE Policy and Action Plan ).
The extract below shows that solar PV systems need four to five times the capacity of even biomass / biogas RE plants to generate the same amount of energy ( GWh / TWh ).
Thus , the proposed 70 per cent RE capacity target may not help in substantial emission reductions towards the NZE target . The issue of the RE share can still apply if the total generating capacity is significantly enhanced , which may involve having a higher reserve margin than exists now ( of the order of 40 per cent as against a target of 25 per cent ).
It may be necessary to review the objectives of the “ Hybrid Hydro-Floating Solar ( HHFS )” to consider it in two phases , i . e ., short / medium term and long term . HHFS can certainly enhance RE-generating capacity and do it reasonably quickly .
However , HHFS capacity , much exceeding the existing transmission grid connections capacity , will need enhancement of the grid transmission system capacity connections , which involve administrative / procedural approval delays before the excess HHFS capacity can be usefully exploited , making it a longterm implementation strategy .
GREEN HYDROGEN IN SARAWAK
Hydrogen , especially Green Hydrogen ( GH2 ), has been touted as a silver bullet for decarbonisation to reduce national emissions . It is a global aspiration , not just for Malaysia .
However , the details of the Flagship projects , as indicated below , may warrant a review , as the most significant current hurdle to more comprehensive GH2 production and use is its high production cost .
The recent UTP-APEC seminar indicated that “ affordable GH2 ” may not be available at an adequate scale before about 2030 . So , it would be a tremendous achievement for Malaysia if the ongoing GH2 initiatives in Sarawak can beat the international consensus and accelerate GH2 production at such affordable cost ( and at sufficient scale ) before the expected 2030 deadline .
The proposed use of GH2 ( and ammonia ) in co-firing for power generation may again need review . The round-trip-efficiency for GH2 use for power generation is only of the order of 30 per cent . So , it does not make sense to use GH2 for power generation in efforts towards emission reductions .
It is more effective , and perhaps even more viable , to use it for its primary industrial uses now , mainly to reduce emissions from hard-to-decarbonise industries , as indicated at the UTP-APEC seminar , as shown in the attached chart .
ENERGY SECURITY IN SABAH
Energy security in Sabah is “ unequal ” in the sense that it is reasonably satisfactory for the West Coast region ( WCR ) but not so for the East Coast region ( ECR ). The primary reason has been known for a