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THE HEALTH | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER , 2021
Cover Story | 2022 Prospects |
Not ready for endemic phase yet
Dato ’ Dr Suresh Kumar
Senior Consultant , Infectious Disease Physician and Head of Medical Department at Hospital Sungai Buloh .
BY FATIHAH MANAF
AS OF NOV 15 , Malaysia had fully vaccinated 76.1 per cent of its total population against Covid-19 . More than a million booster shots have also been administered to eligible individuals by the Ministry of Health ( MoH ).
This situation has allowed the country to reopen its economic and social sectors after more than a year . Premises such as offices , malls , schools and theme parks have started to operate again , and Malaysians have slowly learnt to live with the virus .
Whilst everything seems to be returning to normal , the number of positive cases in the country is still relatively high . Around 5,000 to 6,000 cases are recorded every day , although the death rate has reduced to below 100 daily .
According to the worldwide trend , this number is expected to increase soon . Countries like the United States and Singapore have also experienced a surge in positive Covid-19 cases despite their high vaccination rate .
“ Covid-19 virus is a very infectious virus . While vaccination is very effective to decrease transmission , it cannot stop the transmission ,” explained Dato ’ Dr Suresh Kumar , Senior Consultant , Infectious Disease Physician and Head of Medical Department at Hospital Sungai Buloh .
“ The positive effects of vaccination are currently being nullified by increasing population mobility . Data suggests Malaysian population mobility has surpassed pre-pandemic levels .
“ Hence we will see an increase in the number of cases . However , what we want to prevent is a surge in hospital admissions .”
The reality of the situation
Mutations of the virus happen all the time . What worries the world is when the new mutated variants become resistant to the vaccines . Reducing the chances of infection is critical to prevent this situation from happening .
“ Mutations continue to happen in the virus . But only if there is a mutation that renders our vaccine ineffective or a mutation that makes it spread faster than the current Delta variant , we need to worry . Such mutations seem to be rare .
“ However , if there is more transmission , especially to immunocompromised hosts , the threat that such a mutation will occur is always there . If we can vaccinate the whole world as soon as possible , we can decrease this threat ,” he said .
Dr Suresh shared that most viral infections did not have a cure . In the case of Covid-19 , he said there were two promising antiviral drugs currently being registered . However , they still need to wait and see how effective these drugs are in the real world .
“ The current variant that has spread
all over is the Delta variant . Two doses of current vaccines are 70 to 90 per cent effective to prevent hospitalisation or severe disease . This 70 to 90 per cent effectiveness is not good enough to prevent another surge in severe cases .”
However , he shared that studies from countries like Israel had shown that third dose vaccines decreased hospitalisation
Covid-19 virus is a very infectious virus . While vaccination is very effective to decrease transmission , it cannot stop the transmission . ”
rates by 90 per cent compared to just two doses , especially in the high-risk groups ( above 60 years old and 40-60 years old with medical conditions ).
“ In Selangor , more than 90 per cent of the population are vaccinated . Between 75 and 80 per cent of those admitted with severe diseases were vaccinated . These are mainly patients above 60 years old or 40-60 years old with some medical conditions ,” he added .
Dr Suresh has been actively involved in the management of Covid-19 at Hospital Sungai Buloh . It includes the time when cases were at peak this year . He said the overwhelming number of patients admitted to the hospital was the main challenge in helping manage the pandemic .
“ The sheer number of ill patients was the biggest challenge . We had more ill patients than our ICUs could manage . We need to prevent this problem from recurring again ,” he highlighted .
Pandemic to endemic
Covid-19 is also known to have a longerlasting impact on those infected with the virus . Dr Suresh shared that many patients , especially those with severe diseases , suffered from tiredness , difficulty breathing , and depression for months after the Covid-19 infection .
Whilst there are discussions on Malaysia ’ s transition to an endemic stage , he believes the country has not yet reached the phase .
“ Endemic phase means that we have learnt to live with the virus . At this juncture , we are not there yet ,” said Dr Suresh .
“ Hospitals still have too many ill patients with Covid-19 . It has affected the non-Covid-19 medical services such as surgeries for cancers , etc . For us to reach the endemic phase , two things have to happen .