This contrast is typical of the current inter-monsoon period, which began in late March. According to the Malaysian Meteorological Department( MET), the transition phase marks the end of the Northeast Monsoon and is characterised by weak and variable winds.

These conditions encourage the formation of thunderstorm clouds, particularly over the inland and western parts of Peninsular Malaysia, as well as western Sabah and Sarawak.

At the same time, temperatures remain elevated. The combination of heat and uneven rainfall has drawn attention to a greater concern: the imminent return of El Nino later this year.

WHAT IS EL NINO?

At its core, El Nino refers to a warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This shift disrupts normal atmospheric circulation, altering rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world. In Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, the effects are typically felt as drier, hotter conditions.

Under normal conditions, cooler waters dominate parts of the eastern Pacific, whereas warmer waters remain in the west. During an El Nino event, this balance shifts. Warmer ocean temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific altered how heat and moisture move through the atmosphere.

This shift alters pressure systems and

CLIMATE UNDER STRAIN: The next few months will be critical as Malaysia monitors the potential development of El

Nino.

wind patterns. As warm air rises over the Pacific, it leads to increased cloud formation and rainfall in that region. In contrast, areas in the western Pacific, including Malaysia, tend to experience higher atmospheric pressure, which suppresses cloud formation.

The result is typically hotter and drier conditions across much of Southeast Asia.

El Nino events do not follow a strict schedule, but they generally occur every two to seven years and can last six months or more than a year. Not every episode has the same intensity, and its effects can vary depending on other climate factors.

PRESSURE ON AGRICULTURE

For Malaysia’ s agriculture sector, this combination of heat and uneven rainfall presents a challenge.

One of the main concerns during extended hot and dry periods is soil moisture. Without adequate rainfall, soil loses its ability to retain water, making it harder for crops to grow properly.

This is especially critical for paddy cultivation, which requires a steady and regulated water environment. Even short disruptions in water availability can affect planting cycles and reduce yields.

Beyond paddy, other crops are also vulnerable. Oil palm, a key contributor to Malaysia’ s agricultural output, responds to prolonged dry conditions with reduced fruit production.

Heat stress can affect the development of fresh fruit bunches, leading to lower yields over time. While the effects may not always be immediate, they tend to surface months later, creating a delayed but significant impact on supply.

Water availability is another concern. Farming activities depend on reliable access to water, whether from rainfall, rivers or irrigation systems. When rainfall becomes erratic, even if storms occur, it can disrupt planning and reduce efficiency.

Paddy cultivation is particularly sensitive. Rice fields require controlled water levels, and sudden changes- whether too little or too much in a short period can affect crop development. Extended dry spells between rains can lead to soil hardening, while intense downpours may cause runoff rather than absorption.

Other crops, including vegetables and fruits, face similar stress. High temperatures can disrupt growth cycles, while inconsistent rainfall affects both irrigation planning and crop quality.

BEYOND CROPS

The effects are not limited to plant-based agriculture.

Livestock operations are sensitive to temperature changes. Heat stress can reduce feed intake, slow growth rates and affect overall productivity. In more extreme cases, it may also increase health risks among animals.