@AGROBiz March/April 2026 | Page 9

March-April. 2026 | @ AGROBiz

Aquaculture faces its own series of challenges. Rising water temperatures can alter oxygen levels and affect fish survival. Sudden rainfall events can further disrupt water conditions in ponds and coastal systems.

Together, these impacts show how weather variability, not just extreme drought, can influence the broader agricultural ecosystem.

A WIDER CONCERN: STABILITY OF SUPPLY

When agricultural output is affected, the consequences extend beyond farms.

Lower yields or disrupted production cycles can affect supply levels. Over time, this may contribute to price fluctuations and increase pressure on food systems.

For a country seeking to strengthen its agro-food resilience, maintaining stable production amid changing weather conditions is becoming increasingly important.

This is where El Nino becomes more than just a climate event. It acts as a risk multiplier, especially when combined with existing heat trends and shifting rainfall patterns.

WHY CURRENT WEATHER MATTERS

Even though El Nino is often associated with dry conditions, the current pattern of heat followed by heavy evening rain does not contradict that.

The monsoon transition phase is characterised by short bursts of intense rainfall rather than prolonged wet periods. These storms do not necessarily replenish water reserves sustainably. Instead, they can run off quickly, offering only temporary cooling without significantly improving soil moisture or reservoir levels.

This creates a situation where:

• Heat continues to build during the day

• Rainfall becomes less predictable.

• Water retention remains inconsistent.

In practical terms, it means that shortterm rain does not offset longer-term dryness.

WATCHING THE MONTHS AHEAD

Meteorological monitoring plays a key role in anticipating these changes. Scientists track indicators such as ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure differences across the Pacific to determine whether El Nino conditions are developing.

If a sustained warming pattern is detected, it can signal the onset of an El Nino phase. The strength of the event often determines how severe the impact will be in a country like Malaysia.

At the same time, local weather patterns, including the current monsoon transition, continue to shape short-term conditions. This underscores the importance of viewing the situation across different timeframes: immediate weather variability and longerterm climate shifts.

For the agriculture sector, adaptation is not new, but it is becoming more urgent.

Farmers are increasingly looking at:

• Adjusting planting schedules

• Improving water management practices

• Selecting crop varieties that can tolerate heat and limited water

On a broader level, infrastructure such as irrigation systems and water storage plays a key role in managing periods of low rainfall.

Dam levels are a concern during extended dry periods. Reservoirs depend on consistent inflow from rainfall to maintain capacity, and prolonged heat combined with uneven precipitation can slow replenishment.

While short bursts of heavy rain occur during the current inter-monsoon phase, they are often insufficient to raise storage levels significantly. If drier conditions persist in the second half of the year, lower dam levels could affect irrigation supply, particularly in key agricultural areas.

In the months ahead, much will depend on how weather patterns evolve. If dry conditions persist or intensify, the effects may become more visible across farms and supply chains.

For now, the focus remains on observing the situation and preparing for what could be a demanding period for the country’ s agricultural landscape.

As Malaysia faces the possibility of another El Nino phase, attention is likely to remain on how well the agriculture sector can adapt to changing conditions.

- @ AGROBiz

“ El Nino becomes more than just a climate event. It acts as a risk multiplier, especially when combined with existing heat trends and shifting rainfall patterns.”

Irregular rainfall disrupts planting cycles and farm planning.

Paddy cultivation is highly vulnerable due to its dependence on stable water levels.

Oil palm yields may decline due to prolonged heat and moisture stress.

High temperatures can affect crop growth and quality.

Livestock may experience heat stress, reducing productivity.

Aquaculture systems are affected by rising water temperatures and instability.