The Times They Are a-Changin
April-May, 2025 | @ green
COLUMN 17 for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure and other policies that favour electric vehicles( EVs). The speed and determination by which these presidential orders were being enacted, curtailing environment protection and climate change-related initiatives, surprised the green community and political observers alike.
The Reality: Billions in multiple currencies have been spent by many nations- a great deal of this amount by way of the national debt- but the fact is that the climate change agenda has not been delivering tangible, lasting results, is losing momentum, and seemingly dying a slow death. Indeed, even in countries in which progress apparently seemed to have been made, disaster soon followed.
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA: APR 29, 2025
On Apr 23, 2025, the Spanish media widely reported that the country could celebrate“ 100 per cent renewable power” delivered by its national grid on a weekday for the first time – the achievement of a significant national milestone.
At about 12.35 pm on Apr 29, only six days later, the nation suffered the largest blackout in its history. This Spanish electricity supply shock shook the entire European grid.
What happened in Spain was only, in part, a technical issue. The stresses being placed on the national grid had been predicted, and the vulnerabilities were known. Relentless promotion of the green agenda and speedy execution of clean energy projects backed by grants and other incentives allowed the abovementioned milestone to be delivered. But there was a latent effect. It exerted the functionality of the grid beyond its limits.
At 12.35 pm on Apr 29, the national grid collapsed.
Trains stopped in the middle of intercity journeys, leaving passengers to appreciate the domestic countryside. Hospitals went on to drip-feed levels of power, endangering the lives of patients. Electric Vehicles( EVs) could not be charged. Payment systems crashed. In essence, in an instant, the new digital and green economy“ show-cased” its fragility in a stark manner.
The Reality: The 2025 Spanish Blackout was a dark day for the green agenda. A public inquiry will now be conducted to determine how we can ensure this type of event does not recur. The fact is
that it is expensive enough to fund( and subsidise) renewable power generation. The truth is that it is likely more costly infrastructure is required on a large scale, which will further inflate energy costs.
LIBERATION DAY: APR 2, 2025
On Apr 2, 2025, a day Trump named“ Liberation Day”, a minimum 10 per cent tariff was imposed on all US imports, effective Apr 5, 2025. Even higher tariffs on imports from 57 countries were announced by the president. The announcement of these controversially named“ reciprocal tariffs” prompted retaliation from trade partners and triggered a stock market crash.
The rationale for imposing these tariffs was, for the longer term, to bolster American manufacturing, address trade deficits, and counter perceived unfair trade practices. The tariffs effectively increased the cost of imported goods and set up a basis for encouraging domestic production. As an aside, it also succeeded in disrupting global supply chains.
The Reality: The recent speedy decisions and unilateral actions of the US have clearly demonstrated that over-dependence on a single market and the enormous trust placed in the US as able supervisors of global economic direction have resulted in grave concerns globally. It appears that for a painful period, the weak will get poorer and for a while, so will the strong( see Figure 1).
The numbers from the self-inflicted wound delivered on Liberation Day speak for themselves. From Figure 1, we can conclude that the US economy seems to be revisiting the performance it delivered during the painful era of the Covid-19 pandemic. We can only hope that this new pandemic does not last as long.
While many countries will have to make difficult decisions today, over time, most will recalibrate their policies to land on a fit-forpurpose economic model for their nation. Going forward, the Global South will have to accept that transactional-based models have superseded business frameworks based on trust and relationships( military or commercial). The US- Ukraine mineral resources deal, through which the US gets access to certain Ukrainian mineral deposits, is a case in point. Military security for Ukraine is being offered for long-term US rights to mineral resources.
The Liberation Day initiatives will also likely impact the Climate Change agenda with competitively priced EVs and photovoltaic( solar) panels originating from China, specifically targeted.
At the time of writing, a 90-day“ tariff truce” has been declared between the US and China. While some sighed relief for the temporary respite, and Wall Street bounced back, the fact remains that the world needs less adrenaline and more endorphins.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT: 2025
The Paris Agreement started as a noble crusade with an agenda to protect the planet. As Dylan sings,“ The Times They Are A-changin”. In 2025, the times are changing at supersonic speeds.
As for environmental targets set by the Paris Agenda, the jet that was flying at supersonic speed has hit some turbulence. For this leg
�Figure 1: US GDP Growth Q1 2022 to Q1 2025
of the flight, we are in a steep dive. Trump is the pilot, his economists and advisors are occupying first and business-class seats, and the rest of us are in economy, hoping( and praying) the turbulence ends soon. As for the Chinese, they seem to be the only passengers on this flight with functioning parachutes.
The Times They Are a-Changin
Come gather ' round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You ' ll be drenched to the bone If your time to you is worth savin ' And you better start swimmin ' Or you ' ll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin '
Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won ' t come again And don ' t speak too soon For the wheel ' s still in spin And there ' s no tellin ' who That it ' s namin ' For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin '
Come senators, congressmen Please heed the call Don ' t stand in the doorway Don ' t block up the hall For he that gets hurt Will be he who has stalled The battle outside ragin ' Will soon shake your windows And rattle your walls For the times they are a-changin '
Come mothers and fathers Throughout the land And don ' t criticise What you can ' t understand Your sons and your daughters Are beyond your command Your old road is rapidly agin ' Please get out of the new one If you can ' t lend your hand For the times they are a-changin '
The line it is drawn The curse it is cast The slow one now Will later be fast As the present now Will later be past The order is rapidly fadin ' And the first one now Will later be last For the times they are a-changin '
Songwriter: Bob Dylan