January-February . 2025 | @ green • COVER STORY 13
The Rise of China in the Renewable Energy Generation
Highest Tide
Covid
of
19
Green
Influence
Start of Net Zero Dead Tide
185 countries miss UN NDCs deadline
Tariffs imposed on China manufactured EVs entering US / Canada / Europe
The Tide of Green Influence
195 countries sign Paris Agreement
US pull out of Paris Agreement
‘’ We ’ ll be watching you ’ Thunberg ’ s UN speech
Engine No1 installs environmentally friendly members on Board of Exxon Mobil
A Dutch District Court ordered Shell to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45 % by 2030 .
Finch vs Surrey County Council : UK Supreme Court rules that downstream greenhouse gas emissions a consideration in new developments
No bidders for Danish wind tenders
Green Party in Irish elections wiped out
US pulls out of Paris Agreement for 2 nd time
HSBC and other banks push back ESG targets
Norwegian government splits on EU green agenda disagreements
Shell appeals the2021 Dutch District Court ruling . In November 2024 , the Court of Appeal overturned the ruling .
2014 2015 2020 2025 2026
Figure 2 : The Tide of Green Influence : 2014 to 2025 ( infographic : Ken Pereira )
• Creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through forest and tree cover .
• Enhancing investments in climatevulnerable sectors like agriculture , water , and disaster management .
THE LAST DECADE
In 2015 , we were reminded of a Chaucer quote . As far as an impending climate emergency was concerned , ‘ time and tide would wait for no man ”. That was to become the battle cry of a sprint that lasted a decade – the race to Net Zero .
Over the decade since 2015 , much energy , expenditure and enthusiasm were deployed .
Who can forget the words of Greta Thunberg on Sep 23 , 2019 , at the age of 16 , as she addressed an assembly of world leaders at the 2019 UN Climate Action summit held in New York City .
“ My message is that we ’ ll be watching you .
“ This is all wrong . I shouldn ’ t be up here . I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean . Yet you all come to us young people for hope . How dare you !
“ You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words . And yet , I ’ m one of the lucky ones . People are suffering . People are dying . Entire ecosystems are collapsing . We are at the beginning of a mass extinction , and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth . How dare you !... “
Relentless media coverage of climate calamities followed . We observed corporate tussles in the boardrooms of fossil fuel firms initiated by pro-climate
shareholders pushing aggressive green targets .
Legal action in the courthouses of Europe and the United Kingdom , street demonstrations and imposition of carbon taxes in various jurisdictions were also mainstream topics highlighted .
Activities peaked in the summer of 2024 with the Green Olympics in Paris .
However , a war in Europe and an ill-thought-out plan to get to Net Zero quickly both played a role in directly or indirectly increasing the costs of energy , particularly in many countries in Europe .
It started very well in Paris in 2015 . But now , we see activities related to the Paris Agreement of 2015 encountering rising tides . A total of 195 countries and the European Union signed and ratified this seminal legal agreement ( the only United Nations member state not to have ratified it being Eritrea ). However , it seems the early enthusiasm and pace have lost momentum .
As per the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ), participating parties should formally submit their Nationally Determined Contributions ( NDCs ) every five years , with the last submission due on Feb 10 , 2025 .
In essence , NDCs are climate action plans that countries submit to the UN outlining how they will reduce emissions and adapt to climate change . As of the last submission date , only 15 of the 195 parties met the milestone .
Are the delayed submissions of such a large number of climate action plans an epiphany that Net Zero implementation is more costly and covers more complex issues than was ever anticipated ? Are priorities changing today amongst those who had previously bought into the Net Zero narrative in earnest ?
TURN OF THE TIDE
Some compelling , specific examples are available to demonstrate that Energy Transition 1.0 is faltering .
• In New Zealand , a country currently claiming ( above ) 80 per cent renewable energy supply , changes in regulations are being implemented to once again promote oil and gasrelated activities . This indicates a U-turn , as in 2018 , the government of then Prime Minister Jacinta Arden banned further oil and gas exploration activities . A reduction in investment ensued , resulting in recent domestic gas shortages , with subsequent electricity blackouts ( economically hurting citizens and industry ). In fact , over the past two years , emergency supplies of coal have had to be imported in large quantities as weather patterns became less predictable and green energy sources like hydroelectricity and wind did not deliver the expected levels of energy supply .
• In the November 2024 Irish general election to elect the 34th Dáil , the Green Party - the third party of government - lost all but one of its 12 seats in a rout , with only leader Roderic O ’ Gorman returning to the Dáil .
• In Denmark , all ongoing offshore wind tenders have been cancelled .