BY DR KENNETH PEREIRA

The Energy Transition significantly contributes to reducing Greenhouse Gas ( GHG ) emissions . However , previously I also contended that constraining the supply of fossil fuels was neither an adequate nor appropriate response towards GHG emissions reduction .

This observation was based on the fact that renewable or clean alternatives for mass energy supply are either not yet defined or adequately developed . Thus , the real , long-term solution lies in delivering secure and affordable clean energy sources whilst promoting voluntary demand reduction in many areas .

Forcibly reducing demand by constraining fossil fuel supply whilst that demand continues to exist and has no alternative would only increase the cost of this crucial resource and drive inflation upwards .

After the first essay was published , I thought deeper about how long into the future it would take to achieve the mindset transition and behavioural resets that would result in a voluntary demand reduction of fossil-based fuels ( and their downstream products ) coupled with the delivery of a reliable and affordable clean energy supply solution , on a large scale , that would underpin an Energy Transition .

What would be the winning playbook ? As is frequently the case , when trying to predict future trends , it is instructive to study lessons from the past .

The more I researched the topic , the more I felt convinced that if sustainability of the human existence of Earth is the goal , then what is being portrayed as an Energy Transition should be seen as a multi-prong transition in many areas that would last several decades .

Sustainability would only be achieved after aggregating many successful subtransitions , some subtle , whilst others would require step changes in technology and behaviours . Nonetheless , each is a critical component towards achieving the macro goal of a net zero world .

Most significantly , this multi-prong transition would take many decades if done justly and efficiently from a capital and implementation standpoint .

In this essay , I will attempt to defend these conclusions .

Figure 2 : Correlation between Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) Per Capita and energy consumption ( Source : PennState College of Earth and Mineral Sciences )

United Nations .

Many organisations and government representatives from nearly every country in the world participate in COP , the ultimate objective being to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations “ at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic ( human-induced ) interference with the climate system ”.

The fact that we have already seen 27 COP editions in 27 years is evidence of global cross-border alignment on reducing the levels of human intervention in the climate . Targets and policies have been set so that a concerted effort may be made to address climate change issues . Still , their achievability should be examined with complexity and capital costs as critical considerations .

With many challenging agendas to satisfy , getting the critical elements of a globally aligned , sensible plan that may be collectively and equitably pursued is extremely difficult . Still , there has been much progress , but disagreements persist around the concept of a “ just transition ”.

Figure 1 best describes the core issues which will need resolution .

To keep the effects of global warming within tolerable levels ( a maximum of 1.5 degrees centigrade rise above average current temperature levels ), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Report of 2021 estimated that the remaining global carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) budget is 400 billion tonnes of CO2 .

At around the current global emissions rates , this budget would be exhausted by 2030 . The historical data shows that the wealthiest economies have achieved their prosperity by being the largest polluters and having high per capita energy consumption .

Supporting high-quality lives utilises the remaining CO2 budget in an accelerated manner . Concurrently , emerging economies , least responsible for the predicted climate crisis , will face increasing energy costs , investing in an economic catch-up programme that will leave them inevitably disadvantaged for

Figure 1 – Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions 1750 – 2020 ( Source : Our World in Data based on the Global Carbon Project OurWorldInData . org / co2-and-greenhouse-gasemissions • CC BY )

many decades to come .

These countries ’ response will likely be that they continue to use the cheapest , most accessible and most efficient primary energy sources of the day . Currently , these are fossil-based fuels . The position of these emerging economies could be that they have the most right to the remaining carbon budget and should not be deprived of economic progress at the most efficient cost . They should not be denied .

Affordability will drive their implementation schedule - the more expensive the new infrastructure , the more extended the tenure of the transition .

Information provided in Figure 2 reinforces these points .

THE PRACTICAL RESPONSE

Once most governments committed to a 2050 net zero target , action had to follow to keep impatient voters onside . In a world where democratic countries elect leaders every four to five years , there is a mismatch between populist , short-term political manifestos and long-term energy strategies that cover time and investment horizons of half a century .

If it is breakthrough technologies that are going to be the platform of a cleaner world , some of these at a very nascent stage at this time , then is there a chance that it will be the “ slow and steady ” who eventually win the race of implementing the right energy delivery solutions ?

Thus , as each country realises the reality of this transition ’ s cost , scale and complexity of the scope , logic will overcome the ongoing frantic push to do

TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE

Addressing climate change is a crossborder matter . The effects of climate change do not recognise the imaginary boundaries humankind has drawn on the surface of Earth to separate nations . The steps necessary to positively impact climate change are significant in scale and scope , and no single country can tackle this global problem independently .

This was realised as early as March 1995 and prompted the first Conference of the Parties ( COP ) meeting in Berlin , Germany , under the purview of the