MARCH-APRIL , 2023 | ESG
OPINION
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Figure 3 : Climate-related death rates compared to increase in CO2 emissions
something , anything . The “ net zero by 2050 ” high-level aspiration will likely assume more granularity , and elected leaders will promote ( and be held to account ) specific deliverables – subset transition programmes , all contributing to a more significant sustainability reset .
There will continue to be natural disasters , not all caused by human intervention on the planet , but our response , if history has been a lesson , will be to learn , improve and adapt .
In his book “ Fossil Future ”, Epstein provides the information shown in Figure 3 about the loss of life due to climate change . The data shows that even though CO2 emissions have been rapidly increasing , the climate-related death rate has reduced by about 98 per cent .
It signifies that today ’ s average person is fifty times less likely to die of climaterelated causes than in the 1920s . It is even more remarkable after considering that population growth and urbanisation have become prominent features of modern demographics in the same period . The reason for these statistics :
• learning ;
• improving ; and
• adapting . We will see many mini-transition inputs to a mega sustainability shift objective as the years pass . The schematic provided in Figure 4 depicts this model .
Fossil fuels alone touch our lives several hundred times daily , and each touch point will require a gradual production and behavioural reset . The Energy Transition is not only about halting the production of motor vehicles driven by Internal Combustion Engines and replacing them with electrically powered vehicles .
Instead , even our most basic paradigms will shift as simple behaviours like squeezing toothpaste out of a tube are replaced by placing a tablet in our mouths , which then becomes frothy , easing the ritualistic morning brushing of our teeth !
The aviation industry will require a significant overhaul at the other end of the scale . In early 2017 , the in-service commercial airline fleet stood at nearly 25,000 planes ; by 2027 , this number is anticipated to grow to over 35,000 . At any point in the day , it is estimated that between 7,500 and 8,500 aircraft are in the air .
Travelling and tourism today are essential components of global commerce . How long will it take , and how much will it cost to develop and test sustainable aviation fuels and make the necessary modifications to the existing commercial aviation fleet ?
Cement , a vital construction material but a major GHG emitter , will also require technological advancement and these new materials , likely more expensive , will also require widespread adoption .
We live in a world where populist politics is pushing an accelerated but inefficient and inequitable agenda to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change caused by the activities of humankind . The available data points toward a need for a more balanced and realistic approach , considering the many interdependent components of a progressive move towards a net zero world .
The schematic depicted in Figure 4 , shows the probable pathway to pursue . Each coloured bar of the net zero Transition Rainbow represents the time it will take to change how an individual product or service is redesigned , manufactured or adopted to achieve a smaller carbon footprint . Each line also represents a cost .
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
Whilst civilian voters push for a transition from a fossil-based fuels
Cost / Complexity / Difficult to Abate
Technology evolution In every sectlor
Figure 4 : The Journey to a Net Zero World - Transition Rainbow
Widespread use of “ green cement ”
Multiple mini transitions contributing to the Net Zero agenda
Time
Aviation sector no longer reliant on oil
age , demand will not cease until the most critical oil and gas users fuel their hardware with alternative energy sources . Can this occur in a reasonable time ? I contend that oil demand will materially cease when it is no longer strategic in the defence considerations of the major nations . From the perspective of the defence of a nation , it should be recalled that in 1911 , on becoming First Lord of the Admiralty , Winston Churchill oversaw the conversion of the British naval fleet from coal-powered to oil power . Oil provided many advantages , but oil provided more gun power and speed for less size and cost .
Progressively , the entire British naval fleet was converted to oil . This process turned out to be expensive but vital to British naval dominance . In parallel , a secure source of oil was also required . Thus , on June 14 , 1914 , Churchill introduced an Oil Bill in Westminister that called for investing STG2.2 million British government funds in the Anglo- Persian Oil Company .
The Bill passed by 254 to 18 votes in favour giving the British government 51 per cent ownership of a company which assured its Navy of fuel oil for 20 years . Indeed , energy security , a phrase widely used after the Russian invasion of Ukraine , is not novel .
In 1954 , the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was renamed the “ British Petroleum Company ”, one of the antecedents of the modern BP company , today one of the world ’ s largest oil and gas producers .
In the realm of defence , every tactical advantage is critical . Hence , it is difficult to imagine armies , navies and air forces worldwide discarding their expensive infrastructure to meet climate change goals overnight . Evolution , not revolution , will be the climate change battle cry from the military perspective .
Thus , I believe our journey towards net zero will only finalise its destination when oil and gas are not strategic to the defence of a nation . Perhaps the most significant spin-offs from the climate change movement will be a just transition and more peace for everyone on our planet .
We can only hope for such an outcome , but a journey to this destination may be longer than expected and will require a multi-prong approach and human adaptation . – @ ESG
Dr Kenneth Pereira is the managing director of Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Approaching a Net Zero World
Oil becomes non-strategic to defence
A Net Zero World
Note Each coloured bar represents an activity ( inc human behavioural pattern ) or product that will have to decarbonise from a polluting activity to a less emitting activity ( Scope 1 through to Scope 3 ) over a period of time , in every part of a world that is not in economic equilibrium , to make Net Zero a reality . Some activities or business lines will be more complex , costly or difficult to decarbonize whilst others will achieve targets . This journey will require multiple stakeholders to be aligned and to have meaningful impact . It will also likely be costly , complex and take a long time to implement . Along the way , expensive errors will likely be made .